如果活到100岁成为稀松平常之事 为百岁人生绸缪

A baby born in the west today will more likely than not live to be 105, write Lynda Gratton and Andrew Scott of London Business School in their crucial new book, The 100-Year Life. That may sound like science fiction. In fact, it’s only cautiously optimistic. It’s what will happen if life expectancy continues to rise by two to three years a decade, its rate of the past two centuries. Some scientific optimists project steeper rises to come.伦敦商学院(LBS)教授琳达格拉顿(Lynda Gratton)和安德鲁斯科特(Andrew Scott)在两人年出版的的最重要新书《百岁人生》(The 100-Year Life)中写到，如今在西方出生于的婴儿，有多达一半概率不会活过105岁。这听得一起有可能像科幻小说。事实上，这种设想只是慎重悲观的估算。如果人类预期寿命维持过去200年来的增长速度，之后每十年减少两至三岁，这将沦为现实。

一些对科学深感悲观的人预计人类寿命增长速度还不会减缓。If turning 100 becomes normal, then the authors predict “a fundamental redesign of life”. This book shows what that might look like.如果活过100岁沦为稀松平时之事，则这两位作者应验：“生活规划不会经常出现根本性的转变”。

该书展出了未来生活有可能的样子。We currently live what Gratton and Scott call “the three-stage life”: education, career, then retirement. That will change. The book calculates that if today’s children want to retire on liveable pensions, they will need to work until about age 80. That would be a return to the past: in 1880, nearly half of 80-year-old Americans did some kind of work.我们目前的生活，用格拉顿和斯科特的话来说，是一种“三阶段生活”：教育阶段、职业生涯，然后是卸任生活。这种模式将不会转变。该书计算出来出有，如果今天的孩子想要在卸任后享有充足保持生活的退休金，他们必须工作到80岁左右。

这相等于衰退返了过去：在1880年，80岁的美国人中将近一半人还在最少专门从事某种形式的工作。But few people will be able to bear the exhaustion and tedium of a 55-year career in a single sector. Anyway, technological changes would make their education obsolete long before they reached 80. The new life-path will therefore have more than three stages. Many people today are already shuffling in that direction.但是，在一个行当里工作55年会把绝大多数人累官趴下和无趣杀。不过，当真技术变革也不会让他们的教育在他们预想到80岁时之后早已过时。

因此，新的生活方式将好比3个阶段。如今很多人早已开始向那个方向渐渐行进了。

Two new life-stages appeared in the past century: teenagers and retirees. Now another stage is emerging, say Gratton and Scott: the years from 18 to 30, which people increasingly spend transitioning from education to full-time work. Of course, many of today’s young have no choice: they simply cannot find good jobs. But the 18-to-30s have also been quickest to understand the gift of extra years, say the authors. Many young people are now consciously searching and experimenting, working out how they want to spend the next seven or so decades. They don’t want to let life just happen, as it tended to for previous generations. Today’s parents, who grew up expecting shorter lives, should stop grumbling that 18-to-30s won’t “commit”.过去一个世纪中，经常出现了两个新的人生阶段：青少年时期和卸任生活。格拉顿和斯科特称之为，眼下将要经常出现另一个阶段：18岁至30岁，人们更加多地利用这段时间来过渡性，离开了校园，开始全职工作。当然，如今的很多年轻人别无选择：他们显然去找将近好工作。不过，两位作者称之为，在所有人群中，18岁至30岁的人也最慢地解读了寿命减少带给的福音。

现在很多年轻人正在有意识地去探寻和尝试，企图弄清楚自己未来七八十年想过什么样的生活。他们想随遇而安——前辈人往往这样生活。

现在的父母自小对寿命的预期更加较短，他们不该再行责怪18岁至30岁的人不愿“安稳下来”。Already the young are studying longer. The authors predict that more will do two degrees: first a general undergraduate course, which teaches thinking skills with lifelong value, and then a more specific vocational degree that teaches a specific sector’s current needs. After studying, the young will spend time travelling, exploring different sectors, and assembling a “posse” of friends and acquaintances who can sustain them at work and outside for 70 years. Instead of building old-fashioned CVs, people will build reputations on social media.现在的年轻人投放于学业的时间早已缩短。两位作者预计将不会有更加多人已完成两个学位：第一个是广泛的本科教育，教给他们能终生不求的思维能力；之后是更加专业的职业学位，教授专门从事某个特定行当必须掌控的科学知识。在完成学业后，年轻人将去旅行、探寻有所不同的行当、并创建起需要在工作和生活上不求70年的朋友和熟人圈。

人们将在社交媒体上创建个人声誉，而仍然设计老式的履历。Future careers will contain many transformations. Lives will have fourth, fifth, even sixth acts. People will have to make more choices: next year, should you work flat-out in your job, return to education to learn new skills, or transition to an entirely new sector? There will be time to achieve mastery in multiple domains. No longer will women be denied careers because they took five or 10 years out to raise kids. That will still leave them 50-plus working years. Older people, especially, will develop portfolio careers. The trick will be to keep finding work that robots cannot do.未来的职业将包括很多改变。生活将推到第四、第五、甚至第六个篇章。人们将被迫作出更加多自由选择：接下来的一年，你是应当全力以赴地工作、重回校园电池、还是跳槽到一个全新的行当？人们将有时间通晓多个领域。

女性将仍然因为花上了5至10年去养育子女而无法重回职场。她们还有50多年可以工作。尤其是老年人将发展出有一整套职业。

诀窍在于大大寻找机器人无法胜任的工作。And people will change their use of leisure. When you could expect a 40-year career followed by fat state or corporate pensions, you could spend your free time chilling and buying stuff. But the 100-year life requires more saving. You might also need to spend much of your non-working time reskilling or exercising to maintain your body and brain for those extra decades. If that doesn’t come naturally, the authors have a tip: picture your 80-year-old self sitting by your side, tut-tutting each time you scarf a doughnut or book an expensive holiday.同时，人们将转变对空闲时间的利用方式。

当你能预想到工作40年后，你可以从政府或企业领取可观的养老金，你就不会把空闲时间用作放开和购物。但是百岁人生必须人们储蓄更加多。你有可能还必须花费很多的空闲时间去电池或者锻炼身体，以维修你的身体和大脑，为多活的那几十年做到打算。如果你无法自觉自愿地这样做到，作者有一个小窍门：想象一下80岁的你躺在你身边，每次你惊不吃甜甜圈或者预约便宜的渡假行程时，80岁的你都会在旁边长吁短叹。

Longer life can come as a shock, especially to those of us in midlife. We started work thinking we’d be done by about 60, and dead at 75. But now my generation can expect to retire at perhaps 75, and live to 90. The thought of having to do your current job for another 30 years can be daunting. In any case, many of us will be pushed out in our fifties. Some people (not me obviously!) may also need second or third marriages to take them through to 90.寿命缩短可能会令人震惊，尤其是对于人到中年的我们来说。我们参与工作时，以为自己不会在60岁左右卸任，在75岁左右辞世。但是，如今我们这一代人有可能预计不会在75岁卸任，活过90岁。

想起目前的工作还要再行做到30年，可能会让人沮丧。不过，当真我们中很多人五十多岁就不会被出局了。某些人（似乎不还包括我！）有可能还必须二婚甚至三婚才能承托自己活过90岁。In the 100-year life, age groups will mix much more than they do now. There will be more old people taking undergraduate degrees, or doing junior jobs as they descend rather than climb the corporate ladder. Many kids will grow close to their great-grandparents.在这种百岁人生中，有所不同年龄段的人会比现在合得来得多。

未来将有更加多老年人修读本科学位，专门从事初级工作（不是在职业阶梯上一路上升，而是新的返回底层）。很多孩子不会与曾祖父辈显得疏远。

Most of this is to the good. Crucially, most of the years of life gained in recent decades have been healthy ones. But the book warns that the 100-year life could become the preserve of the well-off. Already the rich outlive the poor, and they will be better equipped to reskill and change careers. Poor people could face 60 years of dead-end jobs in the gig economy, followed by death at 80 without a pension. A life like that, say the authors, is “nasty, brutish and long”.多数转变都是好的。关键是，将近数十年减少的寿命多数都是身体健康的寿命。

但是，该书警告称之为，百岁人生可能会沦为富人的专属。如今富人的寿命早已多达穷人，他们将更加有条件去电池和转行。穷人可能会面对这样的前景：没什么前途的零散工作一做到60年，没退休金，在80岁辞世。

两位作者回应，这样的人生“伤痛、残忍又漫长”。

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